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The Equilibrium Report: 12/08/14 to 12/12/14

12/08- Fed Labor Market Conditions(Nov)

The federal labor market condition index is a model based on 19 different jobs-market variables, from the unemployment rate to average earning to temporary help employment. The index fell to a reading of 2.9 in November from 3.9 in October. This is the worst reading since the start of this year, but its still above the median reading of 1.85.

This particular index is showing slight signs of weakness, but at a very acceptable level. All other employment numbers have been strong and we look to continue this trend into next year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/momentum-in-jobs-market-slows-according-to-feds-indicator-2014-12-08

 

12/10- Federal Budget Balance

The US federal budget balance narrowed more than economist had estimated to a level of $56.8 billion Vs. their $72.50 billion. The report pointed to a stronger economy as the reason for the reduction in our deficit.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/12/10/stronger-economy-helps-trim-us-budget-deficit/

 

12/11- Retail Sales (Nov), Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Retail Sales (Nov)

Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building material and food services rose 0.60% last month. Economist had estimated a rise of 0.40%.

This is a great and positive indicator that inflation may be going up and improving the odds of an interest rate jump next year. It also show that more American are confident in spending their money.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/11/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0JP1HP20141211

 

Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Initial claims were down by 3,000 to annualized rate of 294,000. Economist estimated that the claims would drop to a level of 296,000. Continuing claims rose by 142,000 to 2.51 million.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-jobless-claims-is-lowest-in-three-weeks-2014-12-11

 

12/12- PPI Final Demand (Nov), Reuters/ Umich Consumer Senitment- Prel (Dec)

PPI Final Demand (Nov)

Producer Price Index fell by 0.20% after a gain of 0.20% last month. The estimated drop by economist was 0.1% drop.  This is one of the factors the fed considers when raising rates. However, a global slowdown and oil being so low is keeping inflation down, which may result in rates remaining the same.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-fall-more-than-forecast-as-energy-drops.html

 

Reuters/ Umich Consumer Senitment- Prel (Dec)

The preliminary reading for consumer sentiment rose again to a level of 93.88 from 88.8 in November. This is the best reading since January 2007. Economist expected a level of 89.6. It appears people feel like things are getting better, and along with that are open to hire and spend more.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-rise-yet-another-sign-of-normalizing-us-economy-2014-12-12?link=MW_latest_news



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